‘India will see 8.2% GDP growth next fiscal’

The quarterly growth trajectory is volatile with double-digits growth in Q1FY23 but very low annualised prints in Q4, largely due to distortion from base effects.

Warning that the new year will be riskier than the previous two in terms of growth, inflation and the perils of monetary policy normalisation on consumption demand in particular, along with other external risks, a Wall Street brokerage has pencilled in an 8.2 per cent GDP growth next fiscal, with more downside risks to the projection.

The biggest risk to the projection is a derailed consumption demand that has been the main growth driver in the past many years, said the Bank of America Securities India house economists who still believe that consumption demand will remain the key driver of growth next fiscal as well.

These economists expect higher growth next fiscal on the back of higher overall gross value add (GVA) growth due to the lower outgo onto subsidies next fiscal, along with stable agri growth at around 4 per cent and robust services growth, adding up to an overall GVA growth of 7 per cent, down from a likely 8.5 per cent in FY22 and an 8.2 per cent GDP growth in FY23, down from 9.3 per cent in FY22.

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