India’s economic hit limited to Q1: Moody’s

India’s economic damage due to the second wave of COVID-19 and subsequent lockdowns will remain restricted to the April to June quarter, Moody’s Investors Service said in a new macroeconomic outlook.

‘We currently expect India’s real GDP to grow at 9.6 per cent in 2021 and 7 per cent in 2022,’ it said. ‘With states now easing restrictions, economic activity in May is likely to signify the trough.’

It assessed the overall economic effect of the second wave to be softer than that during the first wave of pandemic last year, although delivery of and access to vaccines will determine the durability of recovery.

We expect the current lockdowns to have less of an adverse impact on economic activity than the nationwide lockdown in April 2020 because the latest restrictions have been more targeted, localised and less stringent, said Moody’s.

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